At the beginning of this year, US equities were one of the only markets in the world which had posted gains in the period since Trump’s election last November.
This was on the hope that many of Trump’s stated policy aims – such as trade tariffs and immigration reform – would give way to a greater focus on market-beneficial deregulation and tax cuts. In addition, big US technology firms looked set to continue to dominate the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution.
But even before ‘Liberation Day’, these assumptions had begun to unravel. US policy had instead prioritised tariffs – shaking up alliances and migration to create great uncertainty in the US and beyond. Elsewhere, a Chinese tech company, DeepSeek, forced investors to question assumptions about US tech leadership.
‘Free lunch’
‘Diversification is the only free lunch’ in investing is a quote that’s attributed to the US Nobel Prize-winning economist, Harry Markowitz.Markowitz is perhaps best known for his work on modern portfolio theory, which emphasises the importance of diversifying your portfolio to reduce risk and enhance returns.
With market concentration in the US having become increasingly pronounced over the past decade (see Chart 1) we think it’s now time for greater diversification.
Chart 1: Weight of US equities in global indices, 2010-2025 (%)
Diversification by region
Global ‘de-risking’ in 2024 led to a drop in investors' allocations to emerging markets – averaging 4.8% in early 2025, down from 7.9% in 2017 [1]. In today's uncertain world, Asia is becoming more attractive as a place to invest.India. Indian stocks began 2025 with a much-needed pullback that started last September. This has helped to lower relative valuations to more reasonable levels. While earnings growth has slowed, we expect this market to continue generating comfortable double-digit earnings growth going forward.
From a technical perspective, foreign investors are now underweighted after six consecutive months of net selling, even as domestic investors remain net buyers.
Furthermore, India’s long-term structural growth story remains intact, and we continue to see room for companies benefitting from increased consumption, recovery in domestic activity and the government’s efforts to boost tourism.
- China. Investors may also be wondering whether it’s time for an investment in China again. For years, investor and consumer confidence in China suffered following a government crackdown on property lending and sanctions on China’s tech champions.
Despite this, China managed to surprise investors with the disclosure of innovations in generative AI (DeepSeek), autonomous driving (God’s Eye), as well as five-minute electric vehicle charging – all achieved in spite of US sanctions and other restrictions.
Valuations remain attractive despite a rally this year. For investors who have been sitting on the sidelines, now may be an appropriate time to explore opportunities. Investors can choose single-country solutions or a take a broader investment approach. Southeast Asia. Some of the principal members of the 10-country Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) trade bloc have, so far, been key beneficiaries of nearshoring – the relocation of business processes or production to a nearby country for cost, efficiency or security reasons.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) in these countries has picked up to offset a corresponding decline in investments into China (see Chart 2).
With the region on the receiving end of some harsh tariff treatment on ‘Liberation Day’ investors’ concern will naturally grow around the future trajectory of these flows.
But despite this unwelcome surprise, these countries generally benefit from favourable demographic trends and a growing middle class. In addition, markets like Vietnam and Thailand are taking steps to reform their capital markets and improve corporate governance.
Chart 2: ASEAN FDI vs China FDI, 2004-2025 (% of GDP)
Diversification by size
It has been well documented how a handful of the biggest companies have driven returns in developed markets – with just eight stocks responsible for 50% of global ‘large-cap’ returns in 2024.
But the sheer number and diversity of smaller companies mean it’s impossible for a handful of names – no matter how well they perform – to drive an entire index comprising companies with smaller capitalisations, or ‘small-caps’ (see Chart 3).
Chart 3: Top 100 Performing Stocks, large-cap vs small-cap (%)
This diversity makes small-caps an ideal area to invest for those looking for funds with a high active share – a measure of how much a portfolio's holdings differ from its benchmark index – and lower correlation to large caps.
Adding smaller companies to a portfolio is typically seen as adding risk. However, we believe that in the current market environment, investors need to add uncorrelated stocks to ensure they are taking advantage of diversification opportunities.
Diversification by theme
AI and tech have dominated market sentiment for some time. At one point, the weighting of the 'Magnificent 7' companies in global indices was greater than the combined weight of companies representing the next seven nations (see Chart 4).
Chart 4: Mag 7 vs rest of the world, MSCI All Country weighting (%)
Against this backdrop, there is a strong case to be made that investors should seek to actively diversify their exposure to different themes.
For example, one theme could be ‘future minerals’. This theme allows investors to gain exposure to the basic materials that are vital to the modern world – investing in the companies that extract, process, and/or recycle these materials taps into some long-term structural trends such as:
- Global electrification
- US reindustrialisation
- Development of emerging markets
The last three months have certainly reinforced the strategic importance of critical minerals. It is notable that a key demand of the US administration from a Ukraine peace deal is access to the country’s mined resources, including lithium, graphite, rare earths, manganese, titanium and uranium.
It also appears that the US’s desire for control of Greenland is motivated by ensuring it has control of mineral deposits or at least retain access to those minerals. While some of these geopolitical moves may appear extreme, they are evidence of the importance of these resources.
- ERFP, JPMorgan Consensus Asset Allocation, March 2025