Last updated on 16 April 2025

US President Donald Trump signed an order yesterday launching a national security review of US imports of critical minerals.

The move comes after China restricted and then outright banned exports of certain rare earths to the US.

Meanwhile, we expect an announcement on the expanded list of semiconductor sector-specific tariffs this week, along with other sectors. This could push the US trade-weighted average tariff rate to an estimated 30%.

However, our base case is for the average tariff rate to eventually settle lower at 19% as trade deals and carve-outs are announced.

Key Insight: Trade negotiations this week will provide a strong bellwether to what the Trump administration is willing to concede on and the potential for tariff rates to be lowered.